Ignoring the Numbers

Just recently, United States President, Donald Trump signed an executive order, which mainly seeks to overturn his predecessor, Barrack Obama’s Clean Power Plan.

To recall, then President Obama announced the Clean Power Plan in August 2015 in response to the growing clamor to address climate change. The Plan’s primary objective is to reduce carbon pollution from power plants. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) subsequently issued the Carbon Pollution Standards, the first U.S. national standard on pollution.

Trump’s EO will trigger the review of the US Clean Power Plan and carbon standards for new coal plants. News reports, however, note, that it is unclear if the US will keep its commitment to made in COP 21 agreement to keep the world’s average temperature below two centigrade above pre-industrial levels.

Reports also quoted Trump as saying that his order is about “ending the theft of prosperity” as the signing of the EO will “start a new era of production and job creation,” particularly in the coal and mining sector.

Perhaps it’s not surprising that the new US President is ignoring the actions and calls of the global community to work double time to mitigate the effects of climate change. After all, he has promised to bring coal mining jobs back while dismissing climate change as “a hoax created by the Chinese” during his presidential bid.

More details are yet to be released on the full impact of this new executive order. But as early as now, environmental activists are already criticizing Trump for going backward on the progress already made by the US in fighting climate change. The U.S, once considered as the leading country in the world’s quest for a cleaner and greener world is now seemingly going backward.

I also join the many others who question Trump’s move in signing such an E.O. as Trump seemed to have ignored that cleaner forms of energy, do generate jobs. Many jobs in fact.

Weeks before Trump signed his controversial order, the US Department of Energy (DOE) released a report showing the contribution of the renewable energy (DOE) sector in jobs creation in the country.

The US, Energy and Employment Report revealed that solar power employs the most workers in the US Electric Power generation industry with wind energy is the third biggest. Solar alone provided work for 43 percent of the sector’s employees with 374,000 individuals from 2015 to 2016. In contrast, traditional fossil fuels all together just hired 22 percent of the workforce at 187, 117 for the same period. Coal’s job figures have been on the decline for the past decade the report stressed.

And renewables’ contribution to the additional employment in the power sector is not to be ignored either. The Energy Sector’s contribution to the overall job generation is significant as it accounts for some additional 300,000 jobs, which is 14 percent of the US job growth in 2016.

Plus, RE’s job growth is significant as it increased by 25 percent, creating a total of 73,000 new jobs last year.  Wind power employment alone grew by 32 percent.

The growth of the renewables has been significant in the past decade as more energy are generated from these sources the report stressed: “The electric generation mix in the United States is changing, driven by the transition of coal-fired power plants to natural gas and the increase in low-carbon sources of energy.”

The study pointed out that generation from coal sources has dropped by 53 percent from 2006 to September 2016 while solar power alone has increased by 5000 percent in the same period.

And with the stellar growth of cleaner energy, jobs are still created.

“These shifts in electric generation source are mirrored in the sector’s changing employment profile, as the share of natural gas, solar, and wind workers increases, while coal mining and other related employment is declining.”

china-solar-energy

Solar alone provided work for 43 percent of the sector’s employees with 374,000 from 2015-2016.  Photo c/o http://www.zmescience.com

Trump stressed during the signing of the report that the main thrust of the EO was to protect American jobs. But apparently, the above numbers released by the U.S. DOE shows that adding cleaner forms of energy in the mix does not necessarily translate into the loss of jobs. Renewable power generation also requires manpower.

The US DOE study isn’t the only one that talks about job generation in the RE sector. Earlier studies have already established that increasing investments in renewables will generate employment.

Research by the University of California, Berkeley has shown that “photovoltaic technology produces more jobs per unit of electricity than any other energy source. Most of the jobs are in construction and installation of solar facilities and can’t be outsourced to other countries.”

Similarly, the report of the University of Massachusetts, “The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy in the US” stressed that a total of $150 billion of investments in clean energy would produce some 2.5 new million jobs.

Inevitably, these numbers point to one thing: Clean energy generates jobs. Choosing cleaner forms of energy does not come at the expense of the workers. On the contrary, more employment opportunities are available as we grow the RE sector.

Industry experts are bewildered on how Trump will deliver his promise of bringing more jobs to the coal industry.  Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, says that it is impossible to bring back coal jobs. “There isn’t a lot of investment activity because in some cases it looks more economically attractive for firms to invest in cleaner technologies.”

Additionally, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis or IEEFA, in its 2017 U.S. Coal Outlook stressed that job losses would continue for coal industry as companies will continue to use fewer workers in the future: Promises to create more coal jobs will not be kept — indeed the industry will continue to cut payrolls.”

Plus, the IEEFA sees that natural gas will soon replace coal, which makes it almost impossible to for Trump to achieve his goal: “Trump’s false promise that he can bring back coal is really exposed as so much coal dust and mirrors by this executive order, since utilities will continue to use natural gas instead of coal.”

Sadly, the US President didn’t look at these numbers nor listened to industry experts.

References:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/trump-climate-change-executive-order/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-solar-power-employs-more-people-more-oil-coal-gas-combined-donald-trump-green-energy-fossil-fuels-a7541971.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-energy-idUSKBN16Z1L6

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/01/f34/2017%20US%20Energy%20and%20Jobs%20Report_0.pdf

https://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/fact-sheet-overview-clean-power-plan

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-coal-mining-jobs-promise-experts-disagree-executive-order-a7656486.html

Green is Gold: How renewable energy can save us money and generate jobs”. Greenpeace

Note: UCLA Berkeley & University of Massachusetts studies are cited from the Greenpeace report.

 

 

It’s About Time

President Rodrigo Duterte made strong pronouncements after attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation in Peru, promising to open up our utilities to more competition.

In his speech delivered in New Zealand, the president said “The only way to make this country move faster to benefit the poor is really to open up the communications, the airwaves and the entire energy sector. My decision now is to open the Philippine economy to other players.”

He further added that the government is “now also looking into regulatory requirements and institutional arrangements to hasten the entry of new players in the power industry and energy sector.”

This is good news for us, not only for energy players like myself but the rest of the country. I have long been advocating for the opening up of the sector to more players, including foreign ones. I have always been vocal in my desire to lift the 40 percent restriction on foreign ownership to address the energy needs of our country for several reasons.

For one, the building of power plants, particularly renewable energy plants is capital intensive, and there are very few local businessmen who can cough up the needed money to explore and build RE plants. The government no longer spends for the exploration of renewable energy and has left the task to the private sector. Unfortunately, exploration is not a cheap undertaking.

Take the case of geothermal energy where drilling of a single hole can cost $5 million, and that doesn’t include expenses incurred for the feasibility studies before drilling.

What we need are foreign investors who can shell out the money and provide the technologies needed to harness the energy from renewable sources because local businessmen do not have them. What we can do is to limit the foreign ownership of the renewable sources, but welcome more foreign investors to own equipment needed to convert our resources.

There’s another reason why the energy sector is ripe for more foreign ownership. The International Energy Agency or IEA has reported that roughly $165 trillion funds are ready for renewable and efficiency efforts from the years 2020 to 2030 after the government heads last year signed the agreement to reduce and limit carbon emissions to help save the environment.  This means the Philippines can take a share of that pie if we open ourselves to more foreign owners. We are, after all, a natural choice to receive these funds given the country’s abundance of natural resources.

The Philippines has been one of the fastest growing economy in the region and the Duterte administration is determined to keep our economic growth momentum that will be felt by the Filipinos. But the government can only accomplish such by building infrastructure to support our economic growth including power plants for stable and affordable energy supply.

Hopefully, the president can achieve his goals by having a cooperative Congress that will push for the needed changes in the Constitution. This necessary change is long overdue.

Reference:

http://business.inquirer.net/220139/digong-opens-3-sectors-foreign-investors

 

Developing the Non-Power Application of Geothermal Energy

Aside from providing a total island power solution through the development of a 40-megawatt geothermal power plant at Oriental Mindoro, geothermal company Emerging Power Inc. (EPI) also has another goal: provide sustainable sources of income opportunities to the local residents.

In my previous post, I have said that for me, corporate citizenship should be concerned with providing opportunities for the whole family by promoting prospects for entrepreneurship, among others. And this is what EPI is doing when planning the geothermal power plant – thinking of the benefits it can bring to the community.

Aside from providing jobs with the construction of the geothermal plant, EPI is also finding ways to provide the resources to develop the non-power application of geothermal energy. EPI’s  aim is simple: study and develop the commercially viable businesses that capitalize on the energy from the geothermal plant.

This concept may be unheard of to many, which is not surprising since according to the Department of Energy, “The country has yet to take off in terms of development of non-power applications of geothermal energy resources.”

But just how can we use geothermal energy in other ways? According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations,  geothermal energy can be used for geothermal heat pumps, space, green and aquaculture heating, agricultural drying, industrial uses, bathing and swimming and cooling or snow melting (in the case of cold countries.)

FAO also identified four ways of applying geothermal energy for agriculture namely, greenhouse heating, aquaculture, agro-industrial processing and soil heating for open-field plant root systems.

The DOE admits that the Philippines can build spa resorts and venture in crop-drying with our geothermal resources. However, the lack of awareness together with the prohibitive costs of developing such venture limits the potential of this concept.

At EPI, there is a team tasked to develop and coordinate the stakeholders to realize the potential of non-power application of geothermal in Najuan. The group is working on the development of an Integrated Agro-Tourism complex that will boast of a Medical Spa and Hotel, Ecotourism, Aquaculture and Agribusiness. The complex will be composed of 50 hectares of EPI-owned land and hopefully some 500 hectares of surrounding land as EPI plans to assist the landowners in the area to participate in the project.

Najuan, Oriental Mindoro. EPI is working on developing the area into an Agro-Tourism Complex

Najuan, Oriental Mindoro. EPI is working on developing the area into an Agro-Tourism Complex

EPI is working with ITALPINAS, Italian property and design experts, and agri-aqua-forest experts from the University of the Philippines – College of Economics and Management Alumni Association, Inc. (UPLB-CEMAFI).  The experts from the UPLB-CEMAFI have conducted a feasibility study on the best-suited type of agro-tourism complex for the area. A Mindoro Agro-Tourism Master Plan is currently being crafted and will be presented to all stakeholders soon.

EPI’s project is  inspired by the example of Iceland as it has the famous Blue Lagoon, situated near a geothermal power plant. Blue Lagoon is frequented by tourists who bathe in the water and apply the Silica mud to their skin, which can cure skin diseases. The area is also frequented by tourists for their spa and medical clinics. Plus, cosmetic products are now being produced and sold by the island.

Aside from the Blue Lagoon, Iceland also boasts of fish processing system using geothermal heat. In fact, the country is a great example of how non-geothermal application can be used for aquaculture heating. Iceland, after all, is the largest exporter of Bacalao in the whole world.

DSCF1896 (6)

Residents of Najuan

Mindoro is abundant in coconut, bananas, forest products and herbs, to name a few. As such, a study on the possibility of using geothermal fluids to process these produce of the local community is being undertaken.

What is in store for the community with this project?

The planned Integrated Agro-Tourism complex is estimated to generate some jobs for Najuan, thereby increasing the per capita income per person in the area.  The project is also expected to increase the number of tourists in the area, which in turn will increase the foreign currency reserves and agricultural production and farm revenues. The city, municipality and provincial governments will generate tax revenues from this undertaking, too.

Clearly, EPI does not only intend to build a geothermal power plant in the area.  It is planning and working hard to uplift the economic conditions of local residents, as well. This is consistent with my personal belief that we must find opportunities for entrepreneurship for others while enhancing God’s gift of nature to us. This project allows EPI to do both.

References:

https://www.doe.gov.ph/renewable-energy-res/geothermal

Uses of Geothermal Energy in Food and Agriculture: Opportunities for Developing Countries. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Retrieved from: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4233e.pdf

CAPM and Geothermal Energy Projects in the Philippines

Aside from the relatively high cost of developing geothermal energy sources, there is another challenge that the private sector deals with in developing the said renewable energy in the country: regulatory challenges, particularly the tariff setting mechanism.

CAPM Formula. Photo from www.money-market-trading.com

CAPM Formula.
Photo from http://www.money-market-trading.com

In my previous post, I have discussed the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The CAPM assumes that investors will choose the assets that will yield higher returns over risk-free assets that provide a premium. The CAPM developers used Beta to measure the premium for the risk of an asset, assuming that using the entire market can reflect accurately the correct return of the risk of a particular asset

The Energy Regulatory Commission or ERC uses the CAPM in the tariff setting scheme.

Under the CAPM, the cost of equity is calculated based on the following formula and parameters:

re =rf + betae x MRP

where:

re = nominal cost of equity

rf = risk free rate for the Philippines

betae= the equity beta for benchmark generation company

MRP= Market Risk Premium (MRP)

Both the risk- free rate and market risk premium are based on the historical ERC approvals.

However, the ERC reportedly uses the same beta of (~1.03) for the tariff setting of power plant projects regardless of the technology without consideration to the risk profile of the power plant project. This means that the value of Beta is the same for coal power plants and geothermal power plants. And here lies the problem.

Using the same beta for coal-fired power plants for cost recovery is unfair to geothermal developers and does not reflect the proper conceptual use of the CAPM.

Let’s look at the case of two power plant projects—a geothermal and a coal-fired power plant.

The ERC approved a coal-fired power plant project of 110 megawatts in Mindanao. Its total project cost is roughly P14.6 billion.

The ERC also approved a 40-megawatt geothermal power plant with a total project cost of more than $207 million dollars or roughly P9.1 billion pesos. (at $1=P44 Exchange Rate).

Both projects are financed by 70 percent from loans and 30 percent through equity.

In our above examples, it is obvious that geothermal power plant project costs more. The coal-fired power plant has a capacity of 110 megawatts and costs P14.6 billion, whereas the geothermal project has 40 megawatts capacity but costs around P9.1 billion.

Of course, the costs of geothermal exploration and power plant construction are higher than putting up a coal-fired power plant. But, again, it is wise to invest in geothermal energy since it is not subject to price fluctuations, unlike fossil fuel-based plants.

As mentioned in my previous post, the private sector undertakes high risks because of the exploration required to develop the geothermal sources. Geothermal power projects entail exploration including the drilling of wells to determine if steam is available. Test drilling alone can cost $5 million per hole, and there is no guarantee that steam is available from the hole being explored.

In fact, according to a study conducted by the International Finance Corporation, roughly only 60 percent of the explored holes worldwide turned out to be successful.  This means that geothermal exploration is a high-risk and expensive undertaking. Exploration alone costs more than half of the total project cost for geothermal power plant projects.

On the other hand, coal-fired power plants only require the importation of the fuel and the power plants structures that are almost uniform.

The ERC uses the beta for coal (~1.03) to determine the return on equity for any project regardless of the risk profile.

Arguably, ERC’s choice of using the same Beta for coal and all other power projects is an incorrect application of the CAPM. Plus, of course, it is most unfair for renewable energy developers especially for geothermal energy developers in the country because they bear risks that are higher compared to the risks undertaken by coal-fired power plant owners.

The Beta in the CAPM, again, measures the risk. It follows that an asset, which has a higher risk profile, should have a higher Beta value. Under the CAPM, the riskier the asset is, the farther the asset is from having a Beta that equals to 1. Simply put, the value of the Beta used for the computation of the tariff should reflect the specific risks assumed by that particular asset in relation to the entire market.

The value of the Beta should reflect the risk of the market since CAPM assumes that the entire market can reflect the correct return of the risk of a certain asset. It is then sensible to use a Beta that reflects the premium for the specific risk of investing in a geothermal energy power project in relation to the entire market rather than a Beta for a different type of asset or technology, in this case, the coal-fired power plant.

It is therefore, logical that a geothermal energy power project will have a different value for the Beta, a higher value at that since geothermal development is riskier than a coal-fired power plant project.

The geothermal power plant projects should be given a higher yield than coal-fired power plant given the higher capital and risk exposure of the private developers. This is especially true these days where the government no longer shells out money for the exploration, but rather leaves the private sector to do its own exploration of geothermal sources, which comes at a high price.

Unfortunately, the ERC does not see it this way as it uses the same Beta for all power plant projects.

So, what incentives do geothermal power plant producers have to invest their money on such a risky undertaking when they are unable to obtain the required return given the incorrect valuation of the risks involved in these projects?