Is Weather Too Hot? Soon the World Will Be Unlivable

 

The summer season in the Philippines means enduring sweltering weather for two to three months. According to the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAGASA, the month of May saw the country’s heat index reach its highest values for the year.

The heat index in May (or at least for the first half of May) reached what Health officials refer to as dangerous levels, a range between 41℃ to 54 ℃.  The dangerous level can cause heat cramps, and heat exhaustion and might result in a heat stroke. Unfortunately, the dangerous heat index was recorded in May all over the Philippines, the highest so far for the month was 51℃ to 53℃ in places like Dagupan City in Pangasinan, Butuan City in Agusan Del Norte, and Sangley Point, Cavite.

It was worse for San Jose City in Occidental Mindoro on April 20 as it recorded a heat index of 58℃. The Health Department says there is an extreme danger if the heat index is more than 54 ℃ because heat stroke is imminent. 

In mid-May, a tropical storm with an international name, Vongfong. After two days of torrential rains and strong winds in Northern Philippines, the warm summer heat in the Philippines returned a few days after, which is likely to last until mid-June. The current heat index we are experiencing shouldn’t be surprising since scientists have already predicted that 2020 will be the hottest year on record.

Fortunately for us, we only have to endure such sweltering heat for two to three months. But there’s a strong likelihood that the majority of the world will suffer from extreme heat by 2070 as new research revealed.

According to the study “Future of the human climate niche,” some three billion people will live in “nearly unlivable” conditions by 2070 if global warming remains unchecked. Authors say that much of the world’s population will live in climate conditions that are “warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish.” I probably won’t be around by then but my grandchildren will be still on this earth by that time, so this warning is still alarming for me.

The study warns that the average annual temperatures will be above the climate “niche” in which humans have lived for 6,000 years. “We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 years than it has moved (in the past 6,000 years),” the study noted.

If the world continues with its business-as-usual and refuses to take climate mitigation measures, a substantial part of the world will be experiencing average annual temperatures warmer than practically anywhere today by 2070. This means the future generations could be enduring warmer weather than what we are experiencing now here in the Philippines. 

 

ecoworld

By 2070, the world will suffer from unlivable weather conditions if global warning remains unchecked. Photo c/o eco world

“Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again,” says the study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands.”Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”

Again, this isn’t the only warning about the effect of climate change. we have heard. A few years ago, Nobel Prize winner and Director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) already warned us that Southeast Asia would likely suffer from extreme temperatures if nothing is done to lessen our high carbon emission levels. 

Schellnhuber’s paper entitled “A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific,” said that temperatures would keep increasing where we could “see a complete shift in living conditions,” and that “All of the tropics will develop conditions that physiologically, humans cannot live outside anymore.”

Experts have been warning us all that lessening our carbon footprint is the only way we can avoid extreme temperatures around the world in the future. These studies also point out that a shift to renewable energy is one of the effective climate change mitigation measures we should adopt. 

Unfortunately, with the world already falling into recession, the renewable energy sector is likely to see a lean period, probably temporarily ending the sector’s rapid growth in recent years. Renewable power projects are exposed to various risks due to the economic crisis brought by the COVID-19 pandemic just like other sectors. One of these risks could be less access to financing.

Fossil fuels are likely to become more attractive in the cover-19 recovery period as coal prices have been falling even before COVID-19 forced locked downs. Plus, oil prices hit at an all-time low. Economies could be wary of the high upfront costs of renewable energy projects and potentially renege on long-term sustainable development plans.

But governments, particularly ours, shouldn’t be too quick to abandon or shelve clean energy transition plans for a variety of reasons. For one, analysts say that the low oil prices will be short-lived. According to an editorial entitled “Coronavirus: The Caribbean is the First Domino to Fall, but There is Hope” “It is expected that at current lows, many high-cost producers will shut down operations and some may go out of business. In a post-COVID world, with increasing global demand and a reduced number of suppliers, there will be upward pressure on oil prices.”

Plus, energy transition plans were well already underway before the pandemic causing the technology costs for renewables to fall in recent years.  Wind power and solar photovoltaic have become the cheapest source of energy in many markets, debunking the myth that renewable energy is the more expensive choice.

A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency also showed that accelerating investments in renewable energy could spur the global gross domestic product (GDP) by almost $98 trillion between now and 2050. IRENA projects that RE would provide returns of $3 to $8 for every dollar invested in renewables. The report entitled “Global Renewable Outlook” stressed that high investments renewable power could also quadruple the number of jobs in the sector over the next 30 years.

And in the short-term, decentralized energy systems will help small communities economically as IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera stressed recently. “Decentralized technologies also allow for greater involvement by citizens and communities in energy decisions, with transformative social implications. Importantly, they offer a proven approach for remote health care in energy-poor communities and add a key element to the crisis response toolkit.”

These are some of the reasons to debunk the belief that fossil fuel could be the better choice in the short-term. But if these counter-arguments illustrating that renewable energy isn’t the “expensive” option, then let us go back to the fact that we need to address climate change.

According to scientists, climate change is a potent risk multiplier or can contribute to pandemics. Plus, rising temperatures allow for the quick spread of certain infectious diseases like dengue and malaria. As research shows, failure to address rising carbon emissions will make the world an unlivable place as humans cannot survive the high temperature by 2070 unless they stay in an air-conditioned place, day-in and day- out.

A Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report released before coronavirus was declared a pandemic said that 77 percent of investments from 2019 to 2050 will be in renewables. This prediction of BNEF remains achievable if we don’t let the pandemic and its economic effects derail us from putting more money in clean energy. Short-term plans to revive any economy post-COVID-19 must remain aligned with our long-term objectives on sustainable development and climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic should encourage us to build back better.

Finally, I would like to repeat my previous point that moving forward we need to move away from our dependence on imported fossil fuel.  The COVID-19 crisis has raised a specter that Indonesia may decide to shut down its ports and close down all ingress and exit points of the country.  If that happens – and thank God it has not happened – this will not augur well for the Philippines We rely on 90% of our coal from Indonesia.

We will have not only a pandemic but a total power meltdown.

Technology Will Keep Our Employees and Consumers Safe

Since mid-March, my living room has become my office where I start work as early as 4:30 due to the Enhanced Community Quarantine  (ECQ) imposed by the government. I join millions of others around the world who had to work from home because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to a paper published by McKinsey Digital, the demand for digital products and services has hit record levels as governments worldwide instituted lockdowns. The paper entitled “Driving digital change during a crisis: The Chief Digital Officer and COVID-19” also noted that hundreds of remote employees are now depending on collaboration tools and online processes to get work done.

I can fully appreciate the above-points as I have my tools—laptop, iPad, and smartphone— spread out in my living room. I also spend my days meeting online with colleagues who are in different areas.  Despite many of us working from home, during the ECQ, our team at Albay Power and Energy Corporation or APEC were still able to mobilize resources and distribute necessities like rice, flour, and alcohol, and protective personal equipment (PPEs) in the area. This is our company’s small way of helping Albay and its communities

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photo c/o APEC FB page

Experts predict that the coronavirus pandemic is likely to last between 18 to 24 months, which means businesses are now preparing to make remote work easier and more accessible, APEC included.

In our offices, the health and safety of our employees will be a priority. Our workspaces will be reconfigured to comply with the new social distance standards and APEC field workers will be provided with PPEs, among others.

Fortunately for us at APEC, we have already made plans for greater use of technology in our jobs since it has always been our goal to be a customer-centric organization.

Aside from the reconfiguration of our offices, our employees will be working in shifts and some of them will be working for home. They will be provided with the proper internet tools to increase their productivity. Plus, we have been preparing for the roll-out of a facial recognition software in logging in all employees for convenience purposes. Now, this technology will serve a different purpose of eliminating the need for individuals to put their fingers on the biometric machines. Soon, we will also be using a new employee app that will also do some contact tracing to ensure our employees’ safety at all times.

These measures are for our employees, but we remain steadfast in our commitment to offering excellent services to APEC customers. Our goal of improving services for APEC consumers has enabled us to lower the 22% system loss to 18% since we took over last January. The collection rate, which is integral for better service delivery has improved as well.

Improving the lives of those we serve at APEC has led us to rely on technology and data-driven solutions across all functions including accounting, collections, warehousing, procurement, finance, and engineering.

According to the paper by McKinsey, companies must re-craft digital strategies and develop a perspective of the business’ longer-term future given that “the best-performing companies have a digital strategy that’s tightly aligned with the business’s overall strategy”. The paper recommends that companies serve customers in a manner that safeguards their health, digitize interactions that used to be handled in person, and help transition customers from offline to online channels.

I am proud to say and as I mentioned, that at APEC, we meet all of the recommendations above as we have long planned for such digital transformations.

We already launched XenPay, a mechanism that allows customers to pay their electric bills in sari sari stores. We are currently reviewing our processes in payment centers as we aim to reduce the amount it takes to pay to 15 seconds per customer as we will only accommodate six people at a time.

 Soon, we will be launching an app allowing our customers to apply for meters online or via their smartphones. This will reduce the need to come to our offices. Plus, we hope to lessen the approval time from four weeks to one week for new power applications.

We are now developing a new technology that allows our personnel to read, connect, disconnect, and reconnect power remotely. We already are creating the prototype as we intend to have the technology ready by year-end.

Another app is in the works, which is intended for our customers to report outages via Facebook and other social media. Our linemen have been equipped with GPS-enabled radios that let the control center identify their location, allowing our linemen to respond to outages faster.

We have drones, too for monitoring, reducing the need for personnel to go out. The use of Artificial Intelligence in monitoring vegetation that causes outages is currently being explored with the help of our IT partner. Plus, we are working with different technology providers to enable APEC to implement more remote payment mechanisms and remote dispatch of embedded solar power.

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photo c/o APEC FB page

The novel coronavirus is forcing businesses to re-think their ways to adapt to the new normal. Thankfully, we have invested in programs that meet the demands of better power service delivery to consumers long before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and even before lockdowns happened. Little did we know, that these which were designed to bring APEC to the 21st century are the very same technological tools that will help keep both our employees and customers safe during these uncertain times.

Still Renewables in a Post COVID-19 Economy

There’s been a strong clamor for cleaner energy sources long before the COVID-19 pandemic. Securing loans from financial institutions for thermal coal power plants has become difficult in recent years, thanks to the increasingly negative public opinion and falling demand for this energy type.

Just recently, Citigroup, the third-largest bank in the United States announced that it will quit providing underwriting and advisory services as it aims to eliminate exposure to the sector entirely by 2030. “Citi recognizes that emissions from fossil fuel sectors, in particular, must be drastically reduced in the coming decade,” the bank noted.

Citi’s move comes after the similar announcements made by other large financial institutions such as Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation of Japan, South Africa’s ABSA bank, and Mizuho Financial Group.

The enforcement of lockdown, shelter at home, circuit breaker, or what we refer to as the Enhanced Community Quarantine in the Philippines will result in a global economic recession. And with this, we can expect many to advocate for the halting or slowing down of clean energy transition around the world. More so since oil prices are in negative territory and there’s slow demand for coal given the lower energy consumption

But as many experts stress, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the economy is not a reason to back out on commitments to shift to renewable power. On the contrary, the pandemic is a wake-up call to push forward in meeting our environmental commitments, recognizing that the development of RE will help us become more climate-resilient and aid in reviving the economy in a post-COVID 19 world.

For one, a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency revealed that accelerating investments in renewable energy could fuel an economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by spurring the global gross domestic product (GDP) by almost $98 trillion between now and 2050. Speeding up investments in RE would provide returns of $3 to $8 for every dollar invested, too.

The landmark report entitled “Global Renewable Outlook” also noted that heavy investments renewable power would also quadruple the number of jobs in the sector over the next three decades, thus improving global health and welfare scores globally.

IRENA Director-General Francisco La Camera stressed that “Governments are facing a difficult task of bringing the health emergency under control while introducing major stimulus and recovery measures. By accelerating renewables and making the energy transition an integral part of the wider recovery, governments can achieve multiple economic and social objectives in the pursuit of a resilient future that leaves nobody behin.,”

Perhaps to better understand the transformative power of RE, we could take a look at the case of the Caribbean region as discussed in an editorial entitled “Coronavirus: The Caribbean is the First Domino to Fall, but There is Hope”

The region, unfortunately, relies solely on tourism, a volatile sector, which is at a standstill. The region’s economy is near an economic collapse that will take time to rebuild. Just how bad is the economic effects of the pandemic? In a single day, Saint Lucia alone lost 13,000 jobs or equivalent to 16% of the labor force.

renewEconomy

According to experts, a clean energy transition is key in rebuilding the economy of the Caribbean post COVID-19 . Photo c/o RenewEnergy

According to the authors, transitioning to a resilient economy via renewable power and with the help of multilateral stimulus is the only way to rebuild the economy of the Caribbean. A clean energy transition should be fast-tracked for a variety of reasons. First, the Caribbean countries have some of the highest power rates in the world because of their dependence on a centralized fossil fuel system. Second, the region is highly vulnerable to natural calamities which are becoming prevalent, thanks to climate change. And third, is the underutilized renewable energy sources. All these points to the fact that the Caribbean region has great potential to be the world’s first RE economy.

The economic recovery of the region hinges largely on affordable and sustainable power. And clean energy is the key to reducing operating costs and lowering of power rates for households and businesses. Renewable power will pave the way for new private investments outside tourism, namely in the manufacturing, agro-business, manufacturing and other high energy-consuming sectors A new resilient and green electricity infrastructure will create new jobs and stimulate economic activities, too.

A Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) study showed that capital required to source 90% clean energy by 2030 of the 31 countries for the Caribbean will require $80 billion. In return, realizing the investment would mean a $9 billion savings annually in fuel costs and offsetting 240 million metric tons of CO2 per year.

There’s another reason why the Caribbean must develop modern energy systems, particularly micro-grid systems that allow the integration of renewables. The authors stressed: “When modern software controls and battery energy storage are added into micro-grid systems, renewables produce and store power flexibly, shifting effortlessly from heavy demand scenarios to low demand, where cheaper renewables are stretched even further.”

The case of the Caribbean region is highly similar to the Philippines. Not that we rely solely on tourism but rather, because, we are one of the countries that would benefit the same way with a quick shift to renewable power. After all, our country has one of the highest power rates in the world, we are one of the most vulnerable to natural disasters and we have underutilized renewable energy sources.

But the authors warn against arguing that fossil fuel power is the ‘cheaper option’. The sharp decline in crude oil prices, driven by oversupply and decreasing demand, will be short-lived as demand returns. It is expected that at current lows, many high-cost producers will shut down operations and some may go out of business. In a post-COVID world, with increasing global demand and a reduced number of suppliers, there will be upward pressure on oil prices.”

The same can be said of coal prices as demand has been falling even before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. Plus, coal exports could be limited should Indonesia decide to close down their ports. As I have been saying, our reliance on fossil fuel power sources comes with a lot of risks, particularly volatility of global prices and foreign exchange fluctuations with costs being shouldered by consumers. And just like with the recommendations of the authors of the report, the Philippines should put their money on renewables to hedge against these risks. Our country would also benefit from more construction jobs brought about by higher investments in renewable power.

Evidence to debunk the myth that fossil power has the “least cost” has been available for many years, but have largely been ignored here in the Philippines. Contemplating our future with the effects of COVID-19 in mind also means securing our energy transition. Ignacio Galán, the chairman and CEO of the Spanish renewables giant, Iberdrola, which owns Scottish Power, said it best: “A green recovery is essential as we emerge from the COVID-19 crisis. The world will benefit economically, environmentally, and socially by focusing on clean energy. Aligning economic stimulus and policy packages with climate goals is crucial for a long-term viable and healthy economy.”

References:

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/nearly-130-financiers-are-now-refusing-to-back-thermal-coal/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/green-energy-could-drive-covid-19-recovery-international-renewable-energy-agency

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Apr/IRENA_GRO_Summary_2020.pdf?la=en&hash=1F18E445B56228AF8C4893CAEF147ED0163A0E47

http://newenergyevents.com/

Opportunities for the RE Sector In The Time of COVID-19

Global renewable energy capacity increased by 176 gigawatts (GW) last year, reaching a total of 2,537 GW. According to the International Renewable Energy (IRENA), renewables accounted for 72% of all power expansions last year with solar and wind power providing 90% of the growth.

These numbers were promising and it looked like renewable energy’s growth trajectory was likely to continue in 2020. But this all changed with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Just like with many industries, renewable power is taking a hit with the construction of new power plants being halted due to the imposed lockdown around the world. There’s also the growing fear that the pandemic will likely affect clean energy investments negatively given the depressed prices of fossil fuels in the market.

But experts also warn that it’s too early to predict the extent of the impact of the Coronavirus on energy markets. They also stressed that there are opportunities for clean power to flourish in spite of the global economic slowdown caused by stay-at-home orders or lockdown, or what we call the Enhanced Community Quarantine in the Philippines.

The Global Head and Managing Director, Cleantech Coverage of Standard Charter, Sujay Shah points out that 70% of the world’s energy investments are driven by governments. With the stimulus packages being offered by governments, a total of USD7 trillion and counting, provide a “once in a generation opportunity for all industry participants including developers, investors, and financiers to shape this spending to accelerate the energy transition and low-carbon agenda.”

There are also opportunities, too for Southeast Asia (SEA) renewable energy market, which has one of the fastest energy growth rates in the world with a yearly 6% growth according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). SEA’s power demand has grown by 80 % since 2000.

Daine Loh, power and renewable analyst for Fitch Solutions as quoted by a Channel News Asia article says that there is a downside risk to the completion of new large scale-thermal and hydropower projects over the medium term, which will probably result in delays or cancellation of government-funded RE projects.

But she also stresses that the weakened power demand for this year due to the slowdown in economic activities could reduce pressures to peak demand outputs, thus freeing up some policy space for government to pursue their energy transition plans. “(It) may put pressure on governments to amend regulations to boost private sector investment in renewables in an effort to support growth in the market over the longer term.”

It also helps that getting financing for traditional power sources has been difficult in recent years. Loh says financial pressures could further weaken investments in fossil fuel power projects and give momentum for RE project financing.

Speaking of financing, access to capital is likely to be cheaper, too with interest rates dropping. The cost of borrowing for capital-intensive RE projects could be attractive.

The RE sector could benefit from the rebuilding of economies since increased construction activities would provide more jobs. As the economy recovers, countries will also have higher energy demand, and governments anticipating this demand may turn to renewable power that can provide more affordable power rates say Krib Sitathani, a project manager with the United Nations Development Programme in Thailand. “There is also the possibility that many governments to take this opportunity to manage their risks to stabilize their energy costs through increasing renewable energy production to not only stabilize their power production but also to ensure a more predictable cost,” he said.

For the Philippines, one of the possible negative scenario of the COVID-19 crisis is that Indonesia, where we source 90% of our coal closes down all its ports. We are okay as of today because there’s a drop in demand.  So I presume we have a lot of coal inventory already in the Philippines. But if this crisis worsens and Indonesia will have to close all its ports, then we are in for an insurmountable problem. 

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The RE sector could benefit from the rebuilding of economies as increased construction activities would provide jobs. Photo c/o http://www.weforum.org

 

To mitigate this threat, our government should order the immediate development of indigenous sources of energy: solar, wind, and geothermal.  To do this, the power sales procurement rules should be amended. Ultimately this is where the development of RE will have to depend unless the government adopts more draconian measures like requiring a much higher percentage of RE in all the portfolios of the distribution utilities. 

The current rules in evaluating PSAs do not differentiate between indigenous and imported energy.  Technically, this should be differentiated because from a risk perspective these are two different types of energy sources.  However, the current evaluation rules and, in fact, the evaluation skills of the utilities will not allow this differentiation. 

To enforce this policy, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) should require utilities procuring power to testify that there are no indigenous resources within its immediate vicinity, or franchise area, or that it has not received any offers from indigenous energy source within the country. This testimony must be made in public and under oath, which will then be submitted together with the application for PA for the signed PSA. This means that utilities must bid or negotiate with indigenous sources of energy providers before doing any procurement from imported-energy sources.

The implication of this policy will be the development of indigenous energy of the country thus reducing risks of non-supply such what we are facing today.  The traditional economic analysis of imported versus local (if it is cheaper to import, import) can no longer stand the scrutiny of today’s reality.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing so much uncertainty for the whole world. For us, in the renewable energy sector, we can take comfort that the world sees the value in investing in clean energy and that many governments know that RE is the way forward to providing affordable and reliable power. Thus, while there may temporary setbacks due to the virus in 2020, as with almost all industries, there remains high optimism for the long-term growth of the RE sector.

References:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-southeast-asia-renewable-energy-nuclear-asean-12617520

https://www.sc.com/en/trade-beyond-borders/covid-19-clean-energy-challenges-and-opportunities/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/the-coronavirus-is-hitting-renewable-energy-supply-chains-factories.html

Action is Hope

It’s Easter Sunday and also the fourth week since the entire Luzon was placed on Enhanced Community Quarantine or ECQ.  For many Filipinos, most of the Lenten season was probably spent dealing with a variety of emotions. We worry over the health of loved ones, job security and putting food on the table. There’s also a feeling of helplessness, that while many are safe in their homes, our front liners especially the healthcare workers have lost and are still risking their lives to save thousands of our fellowmen.

Indeed it has been a difficult time for us all of these past few weeks. But we Filipinos have always been resilient. And in times of need and despair, we can count on our Bayanihan spirit to pull us through.

American screenwriter and author, Ray Bradbury once said that “Action is hope. There is no hope without action.” And Filipinos, as well as citizens of other nations, went to work. And I don’t mean being business-as-usual with our new work from home strategies. I’m talking about good deeds. Acts of kindness that show compassion for those in need.

We at the University of the Philippines(UP) Vanguard rolled our sleeves and went to work, too. We have been providing food, washing machines, and toilet kits, among others to stranded UP students in Diliman and Los Baños. Likewise, we offer online legal and medical consultations for our brods.

Like many private citizens and organizations, we also look out for the safety of our healthcare workers who have been risking their lives to care for the sick. We have donated hundreds of hazmat and isolation suits, and masks to hospitals, particularly in Amang Rodriguez Hospital and Philippine Heart Center. These two are hospitals where some of our brods hold key positions. Other hospitals in provinces are recipients of these goods, too. 

The UP Vanguard has heeded the call of President Rodrigo Duterte who asked for the mobilization of ROTC trainees to help in the distribution of relief packs to families affected by the ECQ.

All these programs are made possible by the cooperation and donations of our committed 2000-member organization.

I, as the National Commander of the UP Vanguards, share our efforts, not as an act of grandstanding, but rather to stress that the Bayanihan Spirit that the Filipinos are known for is very much alive. So many of us in our country are finding different ways to reach out to those in need and fight the unseen enemy that is COVID-19. The UP Vanguards is one with the Filipinos in fighting and winning the war against this pandemic.

It is not surprising that we are coming together as a nation to mitigate the effects of our ECQ. We may all be affected by this pandemic yet most of us continue to do our best to help one another regardless of what worldly wealth we have. Pope Francis said it best during “An Extraordinary Prayer in the Time of Pandemic” service in St. Peter’s Basilica:

“We have realized that we are in the same boat, all of us fragile and disoriented, but at the same time important and needed, all of us called to row together, each of us in need of comforting the other.”

Easter Sunday is about hope, they say. For us, hope means getting into action. And with our combined efforts, “Together, we can beat COVID-19” just like what our government says.

Happy Easter, everyone! And please stay safe!

Burning Fossil Fuels Equals Big Losses

Recent research by Greenpeace Southeast Asia and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that the global cost of air pollution from fossil fuels is roughly $8 billion per day or 3.3% of the world’s global domestic product (GDP). Burning fossil fuels also causes 12,000 premature deaths daily.

The study entitled, Toxic Air: The Price of Fossil Fuels is the first global assessment of the economic burden of health impacts from fossil fuel air pollution. The research showed that burning fossil fuels also resulted in an estimated 4.5 million premature deaths every year globally as toxic pollutants are causing an increase in chronic and acute diseases. This costs the world some $2.9 trillion annually as a result of non-communicable diseases and respiratory made more likely by elevated pollution levels.

Particulate Matter (the small liquid droplets and particles in the atmosphere that comes from fossil fuels) air pollution increases work absences with an estimated cost of 1.8 billion days of work absences yearly worldwide.

Plus, the research also showed that air pollution from fossil fuels is affecting children from low-income families severely. There are at a minimum of 40,000 kids who die before reaching the age of five due to exposure to particulate matter air pollution.

In the Philippines, the study noted that air pollution due to burning fossil fuels, particularly, coal, gas, and oil is causing an estimated 27,000 premature deaths yearly, which is equivalent to roughly $6 billion in economic losses annually or as high as 1.9 percent of our country’s GDP.

The study concludes that decarbonizing globally can provide rapid gains for everyone. The authors stressed that many of the solutions to address climate change are the same ones needed to eliminate air pollution. This means that replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy is crucial in limiting global warming to 1.5 c above pre-industrial level while at the same time help in the reduction of the emission of air pollutants. “A phase-out of existing coal, oil and gas infrastructure brings major health benefits due to the associated reduction in air pollution,” the study read.

The numbers presented by this recent research is alarming. Yet it isn’t the first warning the world has received about the dangers of using fossil fuels heavily for our needs.

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Research shows that burning fossil fuels also resulted in an estimated 4.5 million premature deaths every year globally. Photo c/o theecologist.org

The recent Greenpeace study also somewhat echoes the findings of energy expert and geochemist James Conca who measured death prints or the “number of people killed by one kind of energy or another per kilowatt-hour (kWh) produced”.

Conca’s research showed that globally, the mortality rate of coal is 100,000 for every 50 percent of electricity demand sourced from coal. Oil also has a large death print with its mortality rate of 36,000 for every 8% energy sourced from oil.

In contrast, solar rooftop and wind power, and mortality rates of 440 and 150, respectively. Each power source only contributes one percent respectively to the global energy at the time of the study.

Plus, the environmental benefits of shifting to renewable energy has long been well documented. For example, a study in the United Kingdom in 2017 showed that the carbon emission of the UK decreased by 5.8 percent in 2016 as the use of coal dropped by 52 percent.

Unfortunately, our government and energy planners don’t see the risks of using traditional sources of power continuously. Coal remains the dominant power source in the Philippines, accounting for 52 percent of the total energy supply in 2018. And unlike other countries that are closing down coal power plants, the Philippines will see a massive expansion of coal plants up until the next decade. Fitch Solution’s forecast released August last year showed that coal will continue to dominate our power mix and contribute to 59 percent of the energy mix by 2028.

There was a time when I have built coal plants myself to address the growing needs for more energy but we can no longer ignore the undesired effects of relying heavily on fossil fuels. And over the last few years, I have been advocating for the shift to renewables for a long time for a variety of reasons. It is possible to plan for a renewables only future for the country.  Of course, we know that even if we go completely renewable it will not contribute much in terms of “volume” to the global need to bring down CO2 . However, as we say, a small candle lighted in the dark will go a long way in contributing to this global effort.

More importantly, as I have been saying renewable power is our best bet in getting ourselves affordable and stable power. Of course, the benefits to health and our environment are also more reasons to push for a major transition to cleaner energy as many countries are now doing. We also need to look at what climate change has been doing to our father patterns -we are one of the more disaster-prone countries in the world.

Maybe providing affordable and stable energy are not sufficient reasons for our planners and government to work double-time to fast track renewable energy development in our country. Perhaps the thought of premature deaths among Filipinos and especially among our young children less than five years of age can help convince that the time to make that big shift to cleaner power is now.

References:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/10/14/19/ph-climate-measures-lack-urgency-despite-vulnerable-status-experts-say

 https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1228083/dirty-air-kills-27k-in-ph-yearly-says-study#ixzz6FFbqt1dz 

PH could attract $20-B renewable energy investment

Here We Go Again

It’s high time that the Philippines revives plans to use nuclear power says Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi.

During the Alliance Global Sustainability Conference, the secretary was quoted to have said: “For the past several years, the DOE, through our Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization, has been working under the close guidance of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to assess the feasibility of safely and responsibly harnessing nuclear energy in the Philippines.”

Here we go again talking about nuclear energy. This isn’t the first time we are hearing government officials consider this power source. In 2018, the local government of Sulu signified interest in a modular  Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Last year, the national government signed up with Russia’s state nuclear company, Rosatum Overseas to study the idea of constructing nuclear plants in the country.

In his recent speech, the Energy Secretary admits that we are ripe to opening the Philippines to nuclear energy again but building these plants will definitely take time. “Considering the potential of safely utilizing nuclear energy for our power needs doesn’t mean that nuclear power plants will immediately come out of the woodwork. The entire process will take time, especially since we are still at the stage of addressing the infrastructure issues needed in developing a national nuclear power program.” 

Unfortunately, it takes more than just “addressing the infrastructure issues” in developing a national nuclear power program. There’s just too much complication in the legislative and regulatory framework for nuclear power development in the Philippines. It also does not help that there are no local Human Resources or experts for this energy source.

Let us start with the problem with the regulatory framework covering nuclear power. First off, it has been 50 years since the regulatory framework for NPPs was created. It is safe to say that the “Science Act of 1958 and the Atomic Energy Regulatory Act of 1968 “or RA 5207 is already outdated. 

Under RA 5207, the Philippine Atomic Energy Commission or PAEC was tasked to regulate nuclear power development and operations. It was also in charge of licensing engineers. However, PAEC was already downgraded to the Philippine National Research Institute or PNRI, which only regulates nuclear and radioactive materials. So, which agency then will issue a license to build and operate a nuclear facility? Which agency or commission will regulate professionals tasked with building, operating and maintaining NPPs?

BNPP3

Experts who helped build and operate the BNPP are either retired or no longer around. Photo c/o http://www.Filipinotimes.net

 

Speaking of professionals, we don’t have the technical skills to build, operate and maintain nuclear plants locally. We cannot rely on experts who helped build the Bataan Power Plant as they are either retired or no longer around to help us. The original plant manager, Fidel Corea, has passed on.

The lack of qualified people for nuclear power development in the country is a major concern that even lawmakers tried to address. 

For example, the late Senator Miriam Santiago filed the House Bill 580 “Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) Operability Act” which sought to mandate and create a training program for all technical aspects of the BNPP. The bill proposed the creation of a Nuclear Power Engineering Department under the College of Engineering at the University of the Philippines. This bill was in recognition of the fact that the Philippines does not have the manpower needed to build, run and regulate NPPs.

Having nuclear plants in the country isn’t just about building the facilities. Developing nuclear power means fixing our laws, regulations and investing in Human Resources, among other concerns. Yet, here we are again talking about nuclear power for the Philippines. 

The Energy Secretary said that a survey commissioned by his department revealed that there’s a 65 percent approval rating on the possible construction of a new NPP. Hence, “I feel that the time is ripe for intensified and informed public discussions on nuclear energy and its potential role in our energy security agenda.” 

Sure, we can have a discussion of nuclear plants in the country. But if we are to ensure the energy security of the country, then we should double our efforts in meeting our goal of having more renewable energy in our power mix instead.

Perhaps the government should be reminded of our failure in meeting our renewable energy targets. Just last year, the DOE admitted that the Philippines had failed to meet its RE targets 10 years after the Renewable Energy Act was enacted.

Just how far behind is the Philippines in its commitment to renewable energy development goals? Under the National Renewable Energy Program of 2011, the DOE was aiming to triple the renewable capacity from 5438 MW to 15,3054 MW by 2030. However, only 7000 MW were added as of the end of 2017.

Last year, National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) chairman Monalisa Dimalanta said that non-RE sources were growing faster than renewables “There are a lot more plants that were built that were using non-RE. The pie got bigger with the share of non-RE getting bigger. For RE, the increase was not proportional,” Dimalanta said.

The DOE also noted that failure to roll-out programs also contributed to the government’s failure to meet RE targets, “When we assessed the NREP and implementation, there were delays in issuances of development of support mechanism, like Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) on-grid and off-grid, Green Energy Option Program (GEOP) and the RE market,” DOE-Renewable Energy Management Bureau (REMB) director Mylene Capongcol said.

And this is what I don’t understand. Again and again, I’ve been saying that renewables can help us achieve energy security as we are endowed with natural resources that we can harness. We also have the expertise to develop these resources. We have the regulatory framework to guide us (although they do need a lot of improvement). Yet we are spending so much time and even resources in discussing and paving the way for nuclear energy when we should be focusing on renewable energy development. 

I say it’s high time for the government to focus on the work needed in the RE sector first before making grand plans for NPPs comeback.

https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/02/07/1990930/cusi-revives-plan-consider-nuclear-energy