The summer season in the Philippines means enduring sweltering weather for two to three months. According to the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAGASA, the month of May saw the country’s heat index reach its highest values for the year.
The heat index in May (or at least for the first half of May) reached what Health officials refer to as dangerous levels, a range between 41℃ to 54 ℃. The dangerous level can cause heat cramps, and heat exhaustion and might result in a heat stroke. Unfortunately, the dangerous heat index was recorded in May all over the Philippines, the highest so far for the month was 51℃ to 53℃ in places like Dagupan City in Pangasinan, Butuan City in Agusan Del Norte, and Sangley Point, Cavite.
It was worse for San Jose City in Occidental Mindoro on April 20 as it recorded a heat index of 58℃. The Health Department says there is an extreme danger if the heat index is more than 54 ℃ because heat stroke is imminent.
In mid-May, a tropical storm with an international name, Vongfong. After two days of torrential rains and strong winds in Northern Philippines, the warm summer heat in the Philippines returned a few days after, which is likely to last until mid-June. The current heat index we are experiencing shouldn’t be surprising since scientists have already predicted that 2020 will be the hottest year on record.
Fortunately for us, we only have to endure such sweltering heat for two to three months. But there’s a strong likelihood that the majority of the world will suffer from extreme heat by 2070 as new research revealed.
According to the study “Future of the human climate niche,” some three billion people will live in “nearly unlivable” conditions by 2070 if global warming remains unchecked. Authors say that much of the world’s population will live in climate conditions that are “warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish.” I probably won’t be around by then but my grandchildren will be still on this earth by that time, so this warning is still alarming for me.
The study warns that the average annual temperatures will be above the climate “niche” in which humans have lived for 6,000 years. “We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 years than it has moved (in the past 6,000 years),” the study noted.
If the world continues with its business-as-usual and refuses to take climate mitigation measures, a substantial part of the world will be experiencing average annual temperatures warmer than practically anywhere today by 2070. This means the future generations could be enduring warmer weather than what we are experiencing now here in the Philippines.
“Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again,” says the study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands.”Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”
Again, this isn’t the only warning about the effect of climate change. we have heard. A few years ago, Nobel Prize winner and Director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) already warned us that Southeast Asia would likely suffer from extreme temperatures if nothing is done to lessen our high carbon emission levels.
Schellnhuber’s paper entitled “A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific,” said that temperatures would keep increasing where we could “see a complete shift in living conditions,” and that “All of the tropics will develop conditions that physiologically, humans cannot live outside anymore.”
Experts have been warning us all that lessening our carbon footprint is the only way we can avoid extreme temperatures around the world in the future. These studies also point out that a shift to renewable energy is one of the effective climate change mitigation measures we should adopt.
Unfortunately, with the world already falling into recession, the renewable energy sector is likely to see a lean period, probably temporarily ending the sector’s rapid growth in recent years. Renewable power projects are exposed to various risks due to the economic crisis brought by the COVID-19 pandemic just like other sectors. One of these risks could be less access to financing.
Fossil fuels are likely to become more attractive in the cover-19 recovery period as coal prices have been falling even before COVID-19 forced locked downs. Plus, oil prices hit at an all-time low. Economies could be wary of the high upfront costs of renewable energy projects and potentially renege on long-term sustainable development plans.
But governments, particularly ours, shouldn’t be too quick to abandon or shelve clean energy transition plans for a variety of reasons. For one, analysts say that the low oil prices will be short-lived. According to an editorial entitled “Coronavirus: The Caribbean is the First Domino to Fall, but There is Hope” “It is expected that at current lows, many high-cost producers will shut down operations and some may go out of business. In a post-COVID world, with increasing global demand and a reduced number of suppliers, there will be upward pressure on oil prices.”
Plus, energy transition plans were well already underway before the pandemic causing the technology costs for renewables to fall in recent years. Wind power and solar photovoltaic have become the cheapest source of energy in many markets, debunking the myth that renewable energy is the more expensive choice.
A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency also showed that accelerating investments in renewable energy could spur the global gross domestic product (GDP) by almost $98 trillion between now and 2050. IRENA projects that RE would provide returns of $3 to $8 for every dollar invested in renewables. The report entitled “Global Renewable Outlook” stressed that high investments renewable power could also quadruple the number of jobs in the sector over the next 30 years.
And in the short-term, decentralized energy systems will help small communities economically as IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera stressed recently. “Decentralized technologies also allow for greater involvement by citizens and communities in energy decisions, with transformative social implications. Importantly, they offer a proven approach for remote health care in energy-poor communities and add a key element to the crisis response toolkit.”
These are some of the reasons to debunk the belief that fossil fuel could be the better choice in the short-term. But if these counter-arguments illustrating that renewable energy isn’t the “expensive” option, then let us go back to the fact that we need to address climate change.
According to scientists, climate change is a potent risk multiplier or can contribute to pandemics. Plus, rising temperatures allow for the quick spread of certain infectious diseases like dengue and malaria. As research shows, failure to address rising carbon emissions will make the world an unlivable place as humans cannot survive the high temperature by 2070 unless they stay in an air-conditioned place, day-in and day- out.
A Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report released before coronavirus was declared a pandemic said that 77 percent of investments from 2019 to 2050 will be in renewables. This prediction of BNEF remains achievable if we don’t let the pandemic and its economic effects derail us from putting more money in clean energy. Short-term plans to revive any economy post-COVID-19 must remain aligned with our long-term objectives on sustainable development and climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic should encourage us to build back better.
Finally, I would like to repeat my previous point that moving forward we need to move away from our dependence on imported fossil fuel. The COVID-19 crisis has raised a specter that Indonesia may decide to shut down its ports and close down all ingress and exit points of the country. If that happens – and thank God it has not happened – this will not augur well for the Philippines We rely on 90% of our coal from Indonesia.
We will have not only a pandemic but a total power meltdown.