The Biggest Loser

Around half of the world’s energy needs will come from renewable energy by 2050. That’s according to the latest Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report.

The study stressed that renewable’s domination in the next three decades will occur along with the expected 62 percent demand increase for power and an additional $13.3 trillion worth of renewable energy projects.

All these scenarios are feasible as the cost of renewables has been plummeting in the last few years, the report stresses.  Since 2010, solar and wind costs have dropped by 85  and 49 percent, respectively. Battery storage costs have also declined by 85 percent.

The BNEF says solar and wind power will supply half of the world’s electricity while other renewable energy sources such as geothermal, fuel cells and devices will contribute around 21 percent.

Coal, on the other hand, will be the biggest loser in the power sector as its share in the global generation will decline to 12 percent by 2050 from around 37 percent today.

Europe is leading the shift to cleaner and sustainable energy. The region is expected to source around 92 percent of its power needs from renewable energy. China and India are also expected to source roughly two-thirds of its power from wind and solar by 2050 while the United States will get around 43 percent of its power needs from renewables.

In contrast, the Philippines is expected to increase the share of coal-fired generators in the next 30 years according to the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (Aperc).

In its latest Energy Demand and Supply outlook report, Aperc stressed that coal is likely to contribute 39 percent of the country’s power needs by 2050 or three percent more than its current 36 percent share. On the other hand, renewable energy is seen to account for 20 percent of the Philippines power supply in 2050, which is lesser than its present 24 percent contribution.

Aperc’s projections are based on business as usual (BAU) scenario where existing policies and current trends stay the same. “Large increases in fossil fuel generation, particularly coal which triples, overshadow a more than doubling of renewable generation in the BAU,” the report says.

Aperc notes that allowing coal power to dominate our energy mix will make the country more vulnerable as the Philippines’ net energy imports will have to double. Promoting renewables and diversifying trade will be important for maintaining energy security,” Aperc said.

Our country’s dependence on fossil fuel imports also come at a high cost according to the international research group, Climate Analytics. Its report shared during recent climate talks in Germany showed that the Philippines fuel imports in 2017 are equivalent to 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product or around $11 billion.

The report also stresses that the country will benefit from shifting to renewable energy since doing so will decrease the external cost from air pollution. Climate Analytics pegged the annual average air pollution cost savings around $1.1 billion by 2025.

Adding more renewable energy in the country’s power mix is feasible, the international research group says. The report cites several studies revealing that covering merely 1.5 percent of the Philippines land area with solar installation can generate around 792 terawatt hours of power, a figure that’s 10 times the country’s total power generated in 2016.

Clearly, a shift to renewable energy is possible for nations including the Philippines. And around the world, coal is expected to be the biggest loser by 2050. Meanwhile, our country may also end up as one of the sorriest fools should we allow coal to continue to dominate our power mix.

Juan de la Cruz becomes the biggest loser.

References:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/the-world-will-get-half-its-power-from-wind-and-solar-by-2050

https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/06/22/climate-analytics-report-cites-potentials-of-renewable-in-the-philippines

/https://business.inquirer.net/272280/as-ph-economy-grows-coal-remains-king-says-think-tank#ixzz5s1l138er

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